(The Center Square) – A pair of Wisconsin congressional races where experts have shifted their expectations left in the past month will be atop the interest of voters in the state and across the country on Tuesday night.
A pair of incumbent Republicans are taking on Democratic challengers in what are expected to be close races in Wisconsin’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts.
Cook Political Report U.S. House Editor Erin Covey told The Center Square on Monday afternoon that the spending in both races is an indication of how close both races could be with incumbent Republican Bryan Steil outspending Democrat Mitchell Berman in the 1st congressional race that the outlet rates leaning Republican and Democrat Rebecca Cooke outspending incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden in a race the outlet calls leaning Democratic.
“Bryan Steil is obviously a strong incumbent with a history of over performing and a gargantuan war chest,” Covey told The Center Square. “And that has made it difficult for Democrats to contest this seat. We have seen that this cycle as well but I think the candidate, Mitchell Berman, has put together a good campaign and was able to get a lot more national attention than previous opponents.”
While there hasn’t been a ton of general public polling on the races, Cook Political Report has been able to use internal party polling to gauge the races, Covey said.
She said that polling has been more accurate in midterms than in President Donald Trump’s elections or in primaries but that her outlet would never guess which way polls’ margin of error would fall.
Covey said that the 3rd congressional race between Van Orden and Cooke is less of an unknown with fewer surprises after a tight Van Orden win in 2024.
“The turnout (in Wisconsin) tends to be more consistent between midterm and presidential years (in Wisconsin),” Covey said. “It’s just a high turnout state. Because of that, that kind of benefits Republicans a bit because they’re not going to deal with the same voter turnout issues that they may be dealing with in places like Texas and North Carolina.”