(The Center Square) – Incumbent Justice Anita Earls and challenger Sarah Stevens have polled as close as any for North Carolina's 2026 midterms.

Earls’ seat on the state Supreme Court race is the only one for the bench this cycle, yet great vision toward the future is linked. Earls is defending one of two seats held by Democrats, while Stevens seeks to push the Republican advantage to 6-1.

Early voting began with absentee requests put in the mail on Sept. 4. Early voting in person is Oct. 15-31, and Election Day is Nov. 3.

Earls, who shared in January a breast cancer diagnosis and for which she had surgery during the holidays, has held a significant fundraising edge throughout the campaign. Polling, however, has been roughly even.

She finally roared ahead of Stevens 47.2%-36.4% in the Carolina Journal sampling conducted with Harper Polling Sept. 13-15. And the poll is an outlier.

The August polling by Carolina Journal on the race had Earls up 43.3%-39.7% though within the +/- 4% margin of error for a statistical tie; Earls led in May 41.3%-35.6% outside the +/- 4% margin of error; and Earls led in March 40.6%-38%, also a statistical tie within the +/- 4% margin of error.

In August, Earls led Stevens 47%-44% in a High Point University Poll that was a statistical tie having landed within the +/- 4.3% margin of error. In a July sampling by Public Policy Polling, the duo was also statistically tied inside a +/- 3.6% margin of error with Earls up 44%-42%.

Earls, a Seattle native now living in Durham, was a founder of the Southern Coalition for Social Justice before winning election to the Supreme Court in 2018. Stevens, of Mount Airy, resigned from the North Carolina House of Representatives effective June 16 to focus on her campaign, having served District 90’s Surry and Wilkes counties in the northwestern region of the state along the Virginia border.

Earls, in rulings, is active in the protection of civil rights and systemic equity. She defends constitutional rights.

Stevens, a family law attorney by trade with 17 years in the House, is billed as applying the law neutrally as written.

The race is pivotal to shape the 2028 ballot. Republicans are in five of seven seats, and the ballot in two years will have the chief justice seat and seats 2 and 4. Occupying those spots, respectively, are Republicans Paul Newby, Phil Berger Jr. and Tamara Barringer.

Berger plans to finish his term, and many believe he may seek the chief justice seat Newby will have to vacate because of mandatory retirement age.

If Stevens prevails, Democrats would need to sweep 2028 to gain a 4-3 majority. Justice Allison Riggs, winner 184 days after Election Day in 2024, is the other Democrat on the bench.

It was just eight years ago when Democrat Michael Morgan's win turned the Supreme Court majority to Democrats 4-3 just as former Gov. Roy Cooper stepped into the governor’s office. The courtroom was called upon several times when the Democrat disagreed with a General Assembly sporting GOP majority in each chamber.

Democrats held a 6-1 edge going into the 2020 election. In that one Democrats lost all three state Supreme Court races – Newby won one to elevate to chief justice, and Barringer and Berger joined the court. Democrats' advantage was still 4-3.

In 2022, Republicans won both races to gain a 5-2 majority.